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Amazon (AMZN US) Q3 2024 Results and Outlook

Revenue and Profitability

• Revenue: Amazon reported a revenue of $158.9 billion for Q3 2024, up 11% year-over-year (YoY) compared to $157.3 billion in Q3 2023.
• Operating Profit: Operating profit reached $17.4 billion, up 56% YoY from $11.2 billion in Q3 2023.
• Guidance: Management guided for Q4 2024 revenue between $181.5 billion to $188.5 billion, representing 7-11% YoY growth, and operating profit between $16.0 billion to $20.0 billion.

Segment Analysis

• North America (NA):
  • Revenue: $95.5 billion, up 9% YoY.
  • Operating Profit Margin (OPM): 5.9%, up 1 percentage point (ppt) YoY.
  • Inventory optimization: Improved inventory placement by 25% YoY, supporting sustained margin expansion.
  • Same-day delivery: 40 million customers experienced same-day delivery, up 25% YoY.
• International:
  • Revenue: $35.9 billion, up 12% YoY.
  • OPM: 3.6%, up 3.9 ppts YoY.
  • Continued margin expansion driven by cost reduction efforts.
• AWS:
  • Revenue: $27.5 billion, up 19.1% YoY.
  • Operating Profit: $10.4 billion, 15% ahead of consensus.
  • Operating Profit Margin (OPM): 38.1%, up 8 ppts YoY.
  • Capex guidance: $75 billion for 2024, based on strong demand signals.

Ad Revenue

• Advertising services revenue grew 19% YoY to $14.3 billion, contributing 9.0% of total revenue, up from 8.4% in Q3 2023.

Valuation and Forecast

• Target Price: The target price was raised to $235.0, up 14% from the previous estimate of $207.0, based on an enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 18.2x.
• Forecast Revision:
  • Revenue: 2024E: $637.1 billion, 2025E: $705.5 billion, 2026E: $771.8 billion.
  • Gross Profit: 2024E: $310.7 billion, 2025E: $348.9 billion, 2026E: $386.0 billion.
  • Operating Profit: 2024E: $65.9 billion, 2025E: $81.2 billion, 2026E: $99.3 billion.
  • Net Profit: 2024E: $54.7 billion, 2025E: $65.8 billion, 2026E: $82.2 billion.

Historical Performance and Growth

• Historical Revenue: Q3 2024 revenue was 1.0% higher YoY compared to Q3 2023.
• Historical OPM: Q3 2024 OPM was 1.2% higher YoY compared to Q3 2023.
• Gross Profit Margin (GPM): Q3 2024 GPM was 49.0%, slightly down from 49.1% in Q3 2023.

Market Performance

• Share Price: As of Q3 2024, the share price was $197.93, with a market capitalization of $2,076,681.6 million.
• Performance Metrics: 1-month return: 6.9%, 3-month return: 7.5%, 6-month return: 10.6%.

Conclusion

Amazon continues to show strong revenue growth and margin expansion, particularly in the AWS segment. The company's strategic focus on cost efficiency and margin improvement is expected to sustain its growth trajectory. The revised target price reflects confidence in the company's future earnings potential.