Oil Market Report - June 2017
AI智能总结Highlights
Demand
- Recent Weaknesses in Demand Growth: Recent declines in demand growth are expected to be temporary, especially in post-currency-reform India.
- 2017 Outlook: Global demand growth was 0.9 mb/d in Q1 2017 but is forecasted to accelerate in H2 2017 and for the year as a whole, remaining unchanged at 1.3 mb/d. In 2018, growth is expected to modestly increase to 1.4 mb/d, reaching a record 99.3 mb/d.
Supply
- Global Oil Supply: Global oil supply increased by 585 kb/d in May to 96.69 mb/d, with both OPEC and non-OPEC countries producing more. Output was 1.25 mb/d above the same period last year, the highest annual increase since February 2016.
- OPEC Crude Output: OPEC crude output rose by 290 kb/d in May to 32.08 mb/d, the highest level so far this year, following recoveries in Libya and Nigeria. Output from members bound by the production deal decreased slightly, maintaining year-to-date compliance at 96%.
Stocks
- OECD Commercial Stocks: OECD commercial stocks rose by 18.6 mb (620 kb/d) in April due to higher refinery output and imports. They stand 292 mb above the five-year average and are higher than when OPEC decided to cut output. For May, preliminary data suggests a decline in stocks in Fujairah, Japan, Europe, Singapore, and offshore vessels, but an increase in the US and China.
Prices
- Benchmark Crude Oil Prices: Benchmark crude oil prices fell after May 23, reflecting lower expectations about the pace of global market rebalancing. Current crude prices are close to the levels when the OPEC output deal was announced.
- Fuel Oil Prices and Cracks: Fuel oil prices and cracks were boosted as stocks fell to their lowest level in two years due to tight supplies of sour crudes. Gasoline and naphtha prices fell.
- US Refinery Throughput: Record-high US refinery throughput in April and May led to upward revisions in 2Q17 and 3Q17 forecasts. Global refinery intake is projected to reach 80 mb/d in 2Q17 and 81.3 mb/d in 3Q17, up by about 1.1 mb/d year-over-year in each quarter. In 3Q17, throughput growth is driven by the US and China in the East.
This summary captures the key points related to demand, supply, stocks, and prices, highlighting the trends and projections for 2017 and 2018.
