中国10月通胀数据点评

Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification：SECLicense[2012]No.669 ChinaOctoberinflationdatacommentary 中国10月通胀数据点评 刘道钰LiuDaoyuQualificationNo.:F3061482ConsultingNo.:Z0016422 桂晨曦GuiChenxiQualificationNo.:F3023159ConsultingNo.:Z0013632 2023/11/09 DATA October(expected) September August July CPIYoY% -0.2(-0.1) 0.0 0.1 -0.3 PPIYoY% -2.6(-2.6) -2.5 -3.0 -4.4 1)CPI暂时偏弱：10月CPI环比下跌0.1%，主因食品供应充足推动食品价格环比下跌0.8%。10月核心CPI环比持平，表现也偏弱。万亿国债增发提振经济，未来CPI有望回升。 2)PPI暂时偏弱：10月PPI环比持平。食品价格回落带动生活资料PPI环比下跌0.1%；而生产资料PPI环比涨0.1%。国债增发已经推动国内大宗商品价格上涨，预计PPI温和回升。 1）CPIwastemporarilyweak:ChinaCPIfell0.1%MoMinOctober,mainlyduetosufficientfoodsupplydrivinga0.8%MoMdecreaseinfoodprices.ThecoreCPIwasflatMoM,whichwasalsorelativelyweak.Theadditionalissuanceof1trilliontreasurybondwillboosttheeconomy,andCPIisexpectedtoriseinthefuture. 2)PPIwastemporarilyweak:ChinaPPIwasflatMoMinOctober.Thedeclineinfoodpricesledtoa0.1%MoMdecreaseinthePPIofmeansoflivelihood;whilethePPIofproducergoodsincreasedby0.1%MoM.Theadditionalissuanceof1trilliontreasurybondhaspushedupthedomesticbulkcommoditypricesandPPIisexpectedtoreboundmildlyinthecomingmonths. 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 CPIYoY%CoreCPIYoY% 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 PPIYoY%PPIMoM%(right) 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23 Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23 OctoberCPIMoM,bycategory(%)OctoberCPIMoMminusitsmedian(%) OctoberPPIMoM,bycategory(%) -1.00.01.02.03.0 -0.-20.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0-.02.1 --00..11 -1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.0 CPI Food ProducergoodsMining&quarrying… Rawmaterialindustry 0.1 0.4 2.4 Non-foodcoreCPIConsumergoods Services 0.0 0.0 Processingindustry Consumergoods FoodClothing ArticlesfordailyuseDurableconsumergoods -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 Sources:Wind,CITICSF ImportantReminder：Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness,andtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.CITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthecontentofthisreport. 重要提示：本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 Disclaimer:Unlessotherwisespecified,CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.possessesthecopyrightand/orotherrelatedintellectualpropertyrightsofthisreport.Withoutauthorization,nocontentofthisreportmaybesentorcopied.CITICFuturesCo.,Ltd.makesnoexpressorimpliedwarrantiesregardingtheaccuracy,reliability,timeliness,orcompletenessoftheinformation,viewpoints,anddatacontainedinthisreport.ThisreportdoesnotconstituteanypersonalconsultationoradvicegiventoyoubyCITICFuturesCo.,Ltd. 免责声明：除非另有说明，中信期货有限公司拥有本报告的版权和/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货有限公司对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证。此报告并不构成中信期货有限公司给予阁下的任何私人咨询建议。