2023中国-东盟电力合作与发展论坛专题演讲

专题演讲Speech饶宏Rao Hong 南方电网公司首席科学家、中国工程院院士Chief Scientist of China Southern PowerGrid CorporationAcademician of ChineseAcademyof Engineering 构建新型电力系统，助力能源绿色低碳发展，实现碳中和 Building of New Power System, Accelerating Green and Low-carbon EnergyDevelopment and Achieve Carbon Neutrality 饶宏 Rao Hong 中国南方电网有限责任公司ChinaSouthernPowerGridSeptember 17.2023 知识产权声明 本文件的知识产权属南方电网公司所有。对本文件的使用及处置应严格遵循南方电网公司有关规定或获取本文件的合同及约定的条件和要求。未经南方电网公司事先书面同意，不得对外披露、复制。 IntellectualPropertyRightsStatement This document is the property of and contains proprietary information owned by CSG and/or itsrelated proprietor You agree to treat this document in strict accordance with the terms andconditions of the agreement under which it was provided to you. No disclosure or copy of thisdocumentispermittedwithoutthepriorwrittenpermissionof CSG. Content 电力发展新机遇与新挑战 实现碳中和已成为全球广泛共识 深化电力合作共促技术提升 Deepen energy cooperationandjointlypromotetechnological upgrading Achievingcarbonneutralityhasbecomeaglobalconsensus Newchallengesandopportunitiesofpowerdevelopment ■实现碳中和已成为全球广泛共识 Achieving carbon neutrality has becomeaglobal consensus 实现碳中和已成为全球广泛共识Achieving carbon neutrality has become a global consensus 1.极端天气频发，遍及全球 Extreme weather events occur frequently all over the world. 2021年德国“世纪洪水”：规模“超出现实想象、极其恐怖“、德国近500年甚至干年以来的最严重灾难。 2023年7月，纽约时报报道，7月初全球范围内惊人的持续高温打破记录。 2021年中国河南暴雨，日雨量突破10个国家级气象观测站有气象记录以来历史极值。 The rainstorm in Henan, China in 2021broke the historical extreme value by10nationalmeteorological stations Damaging flood inGerman in2021:"beyond imagination and horrific",theGermany's worst disasterin5oo oreven1,000years. InJuly2023,TheNewYorkTimesreported that startlingly hottemperatures around theworldcontinuedtobreakrecordsin earlyJuly. 实现碳中和已成为全球广泛共识Achieving carbon neutrality has become a global consensus 2.气候变化成为人类面临的当前和长期挑战 Climate change is an immediate and long-term challenge to humanity. 2022年《自然》（Nature）上发表的一项新的研究警告气候变化可能会增加病毒在动物物种之间的传播，为未来的流行病创造沃士。 IPCC工作组报告：《气候变化2021：自然科学基础》分析继续增暖可能进一步加剧未来极端热事件频次和强度，将进一步加剧未来陆地强降水和区域干旱的频次和强度。 The IPCC report"Climate Change:The Physical ScienceBasisin August 2021analyzed that continued warming islikely to further increase the frequency and intensity offuture extreme heat events,and will further increase theand regional droughts. AstudypublishedinNatureInApril2022warnedthatclimatechangewillforcewildmammalstomigratetonewhabitats,whichcouldincreasethespreadof virusesbetween animal species, creating fertileground forfutureepidemics 实现碳中和已成为全球广泛共识 Achievingcarbonneutralityhasbecomeaglobalconsensus 3.应对气候变化、能源转型与实现零净排放已经成为全球普遍共识 Energy transition and net-zero emissionshave become the consensus 《巴黎协定》：以全球平均气温较前工业化时期上升幅度不超过2℃，争取低于1.5℃为长期目标，尽快实现全球排放达峰，在本世纪下半叶实现温室气体零净排放。 With the long-term goal of global average temperature rising by no more than 2 ° C overthe pre-industrial period,and strive to achieve global emissions peak as soon aspossible, and achieve zero net greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of this century. 2021年11月，联合国气候大会（格拉斯哥C0P26）达成历史上首个减煤协议；2022年11月，联合国气候大会（沙姆沙伊赫COP27）达成建立损失损害基金协议。 In November 2021,CoP26 in Glasgow reached the first agreement regards coal reduction;COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh reaches the agreement on the establishment of the “Loss andAamage" fund. 130多个国家提出碳中和或零净排放的目标，覆盖全球88%的碳排放、90%的GDP和85%的人口。 More than 13o countries have proposed targets for carbon neutrality or zero netemissions,covering 88%of-global carbon emissions,90%of GDPand 85% of the world'spopulation, 实现碳中和已成为全球广泛共识 Achieving carbon neutrality has become a global consensus 4.中国推动实现碳达峰、碳中和自标 China's efforts to achieve peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality 力争2030年前二氧化碳排放达到峰值，努力争取2060年前实现碳中和。 We strive to peak C0,emissions by 2030 and worktowards carbon neutrality by 2060 中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家，将完成全球最高碳排放强度降幅，用全球历史上最短的时间从碳达峰到碳中和。 Asthe world'slargestdevelopingcountry,Chinawillaccomplishthelargestshortest time in history. 我们坚持创新驱动，增强了发展动能。全球发展倡议聚焦绿色发展、新型工业化、数字经济等重点领域，推进新工业革命伙伴关系建设，助力高质量发展。 We insist on being innovation-driven and enhancing the momentum of development. Global development initiatives havefocused on key areas such as green development, new industrialization, and the digital economy. to promote partnershipsfor a new industrial revolution to facilitate high-quality development, 全球服务贸易和服务业合作深入发展，数字化、智能化、绿色化进程不断加快，新技术、新业态、新模式层出不穷，为推动经济全球化、恢复全球经济活力、增强世界经济发展韧性注入了强大动力。 Thein-depth development of global service trade and cooperation in the service industry,the acceleration ofdigitization, intelligence and green development and the emergence of new technologies, new business formats and newmodes power up economic globalization, restoring global economic vitality and strengthening resilience of world economicgrowth. 实现碳中和已成为全球广泛共识 Achieving carbon neutrality has become a global consensus 4.中国推动实现碳达峰、碳中和目标 China's efforts to achieve peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality 碳达峰、碳中和路径 Routes to carbon emission peak and carbonneutrality 一次能源消费预计在2030年左右达峰，峰值约52.9亿-61.4亿吨标