联合健康集团（UNH）2026年第二季度展望与投资分析

RatingOutperform Price TargetUNH 492.00 USD UNH 2Q26 Preview: Expecting a strong 2Q driven by MA andpotential for guidance raise UNH is reporting 2Q26 financial results on Thursday, July 16, 2026, before the market opens.We expect 2Q26 adj EPS of $5.22 (vs cons $4.84), and MLR of 88.0% (vs cons of 88.5%). Close Date25 Jun 2026UNH Close Price (USD)415.53Price Target (USD)492.00Upside/(Downside)18%52-Week Range427.81/234.60SPX7,354.02FYEDecDiv Yield2.2%Market Cap (USD) (M)386,043EV (USD) (M)440,169 Our full year adj EPS is better than consensus, and we believe adj EPS guidance could beraised above consensus estimates. Key metrics- We see outperformance potential for the quarter in MLR and MA margin.The top metrics we are watching this quarter are - 1) MLR; 2) Operating expense ratio; 3)UHC margin %; 4) Optum Insight margin $; 5) Optum Health margin %. Areas of upsideopportunity - UHC margins and MLR, Optum Health margin % driven by faster restructuringof contracts and operating expense lower than our projection. Areas of risk - Optum Insight 2027 MA bidding- We are looking for commentary that UNH will continue to bidconservatively for 2027. We expect they will signal flat MA membership next year and thatmargin is the priority until they return to target margins. 2026 Guidance- Adjusted EPS and UHC operating profit guidance could be increasedfollowing 2Q26 or 3Q26 earnings. Investment thesis -We see 1) a sector turnaround as MA recovers from trough marginsfollowing the MA rate shock and withdrawal of competition; 2) company-specific marginturnaround as UNH exits unprofitable MA and Optum Health products; 3) UNH valuation is We have held two recent teach-ins which are focused on key UNH businesses -oneon UNH’s Optum Health (see replay here, slides here, and summary note here); the other onMedicare Advantage (see replay here, slides here, and summary note here). Investment ImplicationsWe remain Outperform on UNH with a price target of $492. Model: UNH See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 29 Jun 2026 04:01 UTC Completion Date: 26 Jun 2026 19:52 UTC DETAILS Top metrics we are watching in 2Q We expect an Adj EPS beat in 2Q driven by MLR and the turnaround in the MA business. We expect the top 5 metrics beyond AdjEPS for 2Q and 2026 Adj EPS guide to be: MLR -We expect strong MA performance and in-line commercial and Medicaid performance. We also see the potential forpositive prior period development related to 1Q MA. Operating Expense Ratio -We are expecting operating expense ratio slightly above consensus at 13.0%, which we would seeas a positive signal of ability to outperform on pricing and trend, and pulling forward discretionary operating expenses. We have UHC Margin % -We are expecting a beat on operating earnings performance in UHC, driven by MA strong performance andconservative pricing and guidance. A beat in UHC margin would be an important signal that the insurance business is improving. Optum Insight operating earnings -We expect Optum Insight to meet expectations, with Optum Insight one of the moreuncertain units in 2Q (upside and downside). As a reminder, Optum Financial was moved from Optum Health to Optum Insightin 2026 which will be a boost to segment revenue. We are focused on sequential growth in this segment, and would look for Optum Health Margin % -We are expecting Optum Health to meet expectations in 2Q. We expect underlying strength in MAperformance to provide support for the quarter, while continued repair of the business presents risks to top line. FY26 GUIDANCE EXPECTATIONS We are expecting a guidance increase driven by improved MA performance, with trend running at more normalized levels vs hightrend expectations (UNH has previously made comments on pricing at 10% trend expectation). We believe UNH should haveadequate insights to raise guidance further in 2Q, but may choose to wait for further trend experience as they are very focusedon restoring investor confidence. We think MLR guidance may not be changed at this time, as our expectations are only 10 bpsbelow the low end of the range. We think they are more likely to eventually suggest MLR will come in the lower half of the range. Comments on 2027 MA bidding should be one of the most important elements of the conference call. We are expecting UNH tosuggest they are focused on margin with continued benefit cuts, and expect growth will be roughly flat and slower than market While less important for UNH, any comments on Medicaid rate outlook for 2H26 or changes to acuity shift will be an importantread through for the Medicaid exposed names. INVESTMENT THESIS Our UNH price target is $492 with 18% upside, and we have an Outperform rating. We see the 16% Adj EPS CAGR growth rateover the next 4 years and see the potential for results to be realized earlier