您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [汇丰]:买入:800VDC带来的积极因素未被完全定价 - 发现报告

买入:800VDC带来的积极因素未被完全定价

2026-06-23 Corey Chan, Dun Wang, Echo Zhang 汇丰 Leona
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Electrical Equipment architecture to handle highervoltage, but this is not priced in 232.00162.00 + Faratronic could benefit given its leading market share in filmcapacitors 168.19+37.9%(as of 19 Jun 2026) +MaintainBuy;raiseTPtoRMB232.00(fromRMB162.00) We see heavyusage of film capacitors in NVIDIA's 80ovDC architecture. Risingrack power densities in artificial intelligence data centres (AIDCs)from a traditional 2-8kW to Rubin ultra's over600kW perrack implies the needto overhaul the existingdata centrearchitecturetoreducepowerloss.Thisshouldforcetheadoptionhighvoltage direct current (HVDC) and solid-state transformers (SSTs) over time. In bothHVDC and SSTs, film capacitors could see heavyusage as they can handle highvoltage (80oV) better than the traditional aluminum capacitors.According to Delta'sDatacenter80oVDPowerSupplyTechnologyWhitePaper,Delta'sSSTarchitecture uses 12 units of film capacitors. We raise our 2028 earnings by 10% to reflect rising demand for film capacitorsinAIDCs.Weforecast AIDCs to contributeRMB486m in revenueto Faratronic in2028, rising to RMB1.7bn by 2030 on the full rollout of the 800VDC technology.Given Faratronic's strong market position in film capacitors and the slow capexexpansion by its competitors,we expect it to garneraleadingmarketshareofc50%intheAiDCfilm capacitormarket.AccordingtoFaratronic'sannualreport,thecompany is currently the largest film capacitor supplier in both the solar and NEVmarkets,withmarketsharesineachof30-40%.Our2028earningsestimatesarenow 10% above consensus expectations, as we are more bullish on the earningscontribution from AIDC film capacitors. Valuation:Its current valuation, at 26x 2027e PE,is below its peer JianghaiCapacitor's 2027ePE of 41x,and looks attractive, in our view.Wesee catalysts fromrising visibility on the progress of next-generation Al server infrastructure of 80ovHVDCpowerracks,whichinourview,couldbedeliveredin2029-30. Corey Chan*(Reg.No.S1700518100001)Head, A-share Industrials & Renewables ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedcorey.chan@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662001 Dun Wang*,CFA,CPA (Reg.No.S1700519060002)Analyst,A-shareIndustrials&Renewables ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limiteddun.wang@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662027 Maintain Buy rating; raise TP to RMB232 (from RMB162): We base our new TPon a DCFmodel.Keyassumptions in ourmodel include a WACC of 8.7%(unchanged),an operating cash flow CAGR of9% in 2025-37e (previously7% in2024-37e),and a terminal growth rate of 2.5% (unchanged).Our TPimplies c38%upside from current levels; accordingly, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock.Potential share price catalysts:(1) Strong data centre demand; (2)cost efficiencyimprovements oneconomies of scale andmore in-sourcing ofkey components; (3)market share gains in the EV film capacitor segment; and (4) rising penetration offlexible Dc technology. See page 11 for key downside risks. EchoZhang*(Reg.No.S1700525050001)Analyst,A-share industrials&Renewabies ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedecho.x.zhang@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 105795 2314 *Employed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations. Issuer of report: HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must beread with thedisclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https://www.research.hsbc.com to reflect the 10% upward revision to our 2028 earnings as we expect increasing demandforfilm capacitors in AIDCs.Rising rack power densities in AIDCs from a traditional 2-8 kW to Rubin ultra's 600kW per rack impliestheneedtooverhaul theexistingdata centrearchitectureto reducepowerlosses.ThisshouldforcetheadoptionofHVDC andSSTsgoingforward.InbothHVDCandSSTs,filmcapacitors could see heavy usage as they can handle high voltage (80ovV) better than thetraditional aluminum capacitors.While horn-type aluminium capacitors are currently preferred in 415VAC systems for their compact size andhigh capacitance,theyface limitations in 8oovDC environments (seeJianghai Capacitor (002484 CH): Downgrade to Hold: Concerns amid heated sentiment, 18June2026,Dun Wang).Incontrast,asinglehigh-voltagefilmcapacitorcandirectlyhandle80oVDC without such drawbacks, making it a more efficient and reliable solution for future high-voltage systems. According to Delta's Datacenter 80oV DC Power Supply Technology WhitePaper, Delta's SST architectureuses 12 units of film capacitors. We forecast AIDCs to contribute RMB486m in revenue to Faratronic in 2028, rising toRMB1.7bn by 2030 on the full rollout of the 800VDC technology.Given Faratronic's strongmarket position in film capacitors and the slow capex expansion by its competitors, we expect itcurrently the largest film capacitor supplier in both the solar and NEV markets, with marketshares in each of 30-40%. The share price has rallied 63% y-t-d (vs CSi300 +7% over the same perio