亚太地区核电：斗山在2500亿美元核电项目管道中的机遇

Asia-Pacific Nuclear Power: The next wave of nuclear builds.What does a $250bn nuclear pipeline mean for Doosan? We identify ~35GW or ~USD250bn of nuclear projects nearing procurement forDoosan Enerbility. This pipeline is primarily driven by large-scale reactors (APR/AP1000)with a smaller contribution from SMRs. Regionally, the near-term pipeline is dominated by Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com This pipeline translates into ~USD44bn (KRW67tn) of potential nuclear equipmentcontracts.Near-term visibility is strongest in Europe, where Poland is moving toward equipment and EPC contracting this year, followed by Bulgaria targeting EPC contracting in2027. Longer term, the key source of upside is U.S. nuclear project progression, supportedby policy initiatives such as DOE financing programs. In our view, Doosan’s established role Kelvin Yuan, Ph.D., CFA+852 2123 2612kelvin.yuan@bernsteinsg.com Despite capacity expansion for gas turbines, we believe fundamentals remainstructurally supportive underpinning pricing and margin strength. We expectDoosan’s gas orders to increase from KRW4.7tn in 2025 to ~KRW7tn by 2030, supportedby capacity expansion. As the installed base scales, we estimate gas services revenue couldreach ~KRW0.4tn by 2030 and ~KRW1tn by 2035, providing a growing and higher-margin Taken together, we expect Doosan’s annual orders to increase from ~KRW15tnin 2025 to ~KRW24tn by the end of the decade.This is above the company’s targetof ~KRW16.5tn by 2030. While execution risks and project delays remain, our forecastsincorporate risk-adjusted assumptions based on the progression of nuclear projects We expect Doosan’s margin profile to improve meaningfully, reaching low-teensOPM by 2028, as business mix shifts toward high value nuclear and gas equipment. These segments are expected to account for more than 75% of revenue by 2027, drivenby both volume growth and higher-margin equipment exposure. Globally, gas turbineOEMs are moving toward 20%+ margins over the next few years, while nuclear equipmentsuppliers operate at mid-teens EBITDA margins, providing a strong benchmark for We update our valuation to reflect higher nuclear and gas order assumptions.OurSOTP-based price target is KRW100,000 per share, underpinned by a standalone DCFvaluation of KRW63tn (unchanged 8% WACC). We believe valuation should increasinglyreflect not just current backlog, but also forward order pipeline and mix shift toward higher- BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Our overall conclusion is that Doosan is positioned for sustained order growth alongside a structurally improving earningsprofile. First, the company’s growth is increasingly underpinned by long-cycle, technically differentiated nuclear equipment,replacing lower-quality legacy exposure and supporting a more long-term investment case. Second, gas markets remainstructurally supportive over the medium term, sustaining both volume growth and margin expansion. This is in light of currentplanned expansion to raise gas turbine capacity. Third, the mix shift toward nuclear and gas equipment should drive not justrevenue growth, but also a meaningful improvement in profitability. By 2028, we expect more than 75% of standalone revenue DETAILS The orderbook outlook is a key driver of company value, as it underpins revenue visibility, earnings growth, and long-termvaluation. Our annual orders outlook reflects the increasing visibility from both the global nuclear pipeline and structurallytight gas turbine market. Based on our bottom-up analysis, we see meaningful order contribution from a set of identifiablenuclear projects, alongside accelerating gas turbine demand driven by power generation needs. Within nuclear, order timing isinherently linked to project progression, with equipment contracts typically awarded after licensing, engineering, and financingmilestones are completed. This gives us confidence that much of the pipeline we track is potentially actionable over the next few Historically, Doosan Enerbility’s market capitalization has shown a strong correlation with annual order intake, reflecting theimportance of order visibility and backlog growth in driving future revenue and earnings. More recently, however, market caphas expanded faster than reported orders. We believe this reflects a shift in the business mix—from lower-margin segments(coal and desalination) toward higher-quality nuclear and gas equipment, which offer stronger growth prospects and improved A $250BN NUCLEAR TAM FOR DOOSAN ENERBILITY Nuclear projects follow a structured development process, where major equipment contracting generally occurs only after keymilestones have been met—namely regulatory licensing approval, completion of front-end engineering and design (FEED), andfinalisation of project financing and ownership structure. Prior to these