新兴市场经济展望与策略：厄尔尼诺对新兴市场的宏观影响

One Shock to the Next – Macro Impact of El Niño on EM Johanna ChuaAC+852-2501-2357johanna.chua@citi.com CITI'S TAKE Rising risks of a Super El Niño could present a potentially significantinflationary shock to EM, complicating the macro outlook even as lowerenergyprices offer relief.Primary risk stems from food inflation,disproportionately impacting those with high food CPI weights and netimport reliance. This, coupled with secondary risks to hydro power supply inclimate affected areas, could force some EM central banks to maintain ahawkish stance for longer (e.g. BSP, SARB, Banrep). At the same time, weargue India’s agri production has been more resilient to deficient monsoons,has supply buffers, and a shift to positive IOD would help. Overall, ourestimatedinflationary impact from El Nino is very heterogenous,necessitating country-by-country discussion. Ernesto RevillaAC+1-212-816-2621ernesto.revilla@citi.com Gina SchoemanAC+27-11-944-0813gina.schoeman@citi.com Yuanliu HuAC+852-2501-2746yuanliu.hu@citi.com Lower oil is a relief, but not a full macro reset.Citi’s commodities team now expectsBrent at US$75/bbl in 3Q26 and US$60–65/bbl by 1Q27, however, we forecast onlya relatively small inflation relief in EM Europe and Asia, while raising Latam inflationforecasts. Lagged energy pass-through, elevated food inflation risks, energy pricerigidity (e.g. Egypt looking to pare back subsidies), robust growth among AI capexbeneficiaries and persistent inflationary pressures from fiscal/wages (e.g. Brazil,Colombia) are keeping most EM central banks cautious. In fact, we turned morehawkish on Brazil, Nigeria and Romania, further delaying our expected easing path.South Asia, led by India and Sri Lanka, is where we see the clearest dovish pivot postoil relief. Luis E Costa, CFAAC+44-20-7986-9757luis.costa@citi.com El Niño is the next supply shock to watch as it will likely be a strong, if not a verystrong event.A canonical Eastern Pacific El Niño would imply drought/heat risksacross South Asia, ASEAN, parts of LatAm, Southern Africa, the Sahel (andsurrounds), while increasing heavy-rain/flood risks in East Africa and the west coastof South America. Europe & Mideast are less directly climactically affected. Food inflation is the most important transmission channel, but hydro, heat andlogistics add second-round risks.The shock matters most where food weights arehigh, agriculture employment/output is large, and staple-import dependence ismeaningful. The Philippines stands out due to its unusually high rice CPI weight.Other food-heavy CPI baskets with high import dependence expose many parts ofAfrica and Sri Lanka (India is less vulnerable). Hydro power risk seems to be thehighest for Zambia, Costa Rica, Colombia, Sri Lanka, Ghana and Vietnam; PanamaCanal water levels and Peru fisheries are also vulnerable. Our state-dependent estimation of El Nino’s impact on EM inflation footprint,implying selective CB response.The clearest inflationary signal is in LatAm andCEEMEA, with Colombia showing the most positive model response, while Asia hasmore mixed, and some counterintuitive results, reflecting IRF model limitations andthe need to factor in other idiosyncratic factors, which we provide in a country-by-country discussion. For now, we expect EM central banks to look through anypotential supply side shock, but tolerance seems lower for some where inflationexpectations are already above target, raising risk of de-anchored expectations. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Contents Asia30China31Hong Kong33India35Indonesia37Malaysia39Philippines41Singapore43South Korea45Taiwan47Thailand49Mongolia51Pakistan52Sri Lanka53Vietnam54 CEEMEA57Czech Republic58Egypt60Hungary62Israel64Kazakhstan66Nigeria68Poland70Romania72Serbia74South Africa76Turkey78Ukraine80GCC82Other Africa86Ghana86 Kenya86Tanzania86Uganda87Zambia87Latin America90Argentina91Brazil93CCA95Chile98Colombia100Mexico102Peru104Uruguay106Appendix A-1108 One Shock to the Next—MacroImpact of El Niño on EM Cross Currents of a US-Iran MoU & Hawkish Fed Johanna ChuaJohanna.chua@citi.com+852 2501-2357 The US-Iran MoU paving the way for reopening of the Strait of Hormuz alongsidea surprisingly hawkish Fed are two major macro developments since mid-June.Our commodities team have dramatically cut their oil price base case (60% prob.)to $75/bbl (from $95) in 3Q26 and anticipate oil markets moving into surplus withprices trending towards $60-65/bbl by 1Q'27. This would be beneficial for most ofnet energy importing EM, support AE consumption, and reduce inflation riskpremium. Meanwhile, our US team continue to discount this risk, though arenewed focus on price stability could lead Fed on a protracted hold, and that US(AI-led) exceptionalism could continue to support a stronger USD bias. Felipe Juncalfelipe.juncal@citi.com Yuanliu HuYuanliu.hu@citi.com The EM macro reality looks far more complicated than t