全球集装箱航运：Linerlytica网络研讨会要点：二季度至三季度利润率将上升

Marine led) and broad-based, not just frontloading; rates to hold..+...into late summer, driving sequentially higher sectorEBIT Global Head ofTransport&LogisticsResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedparashjain@hsbc.com.hk+85229966717Deepak Maurya*, CFA marginsin2Q-3Q;Maersk/HLAGguidanceseemplausible Analyst,AsiaTransportThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limiteddeepakmaurya@hsbc.com.hk+85228224292Bruce Chu*, CFA +ReiterateBuyonMaersk,EVG,CSH-H/A;keyriskisRedSeacapacityreleasewithbigger2027-28supplywaveahead Analyst, Asia TransportThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedbruce.y.h.chu@hsbc.com.hk+85229966621Cathy Huang*, CFA On 25 June 2026, HSBC hosted Linerlytica to discuss the outlook for container shipping.We discuss key takeaways below. Reach out here to request the replay and slides.1)Upcycle looks stronger (and longer):Tight effective capacityand improving demand should keep the market firm at least through August, and potentially into September,ratherthanfadingafterabriefearlypeakspike. Associate,Asia TransportThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedcathy.m.y.huang@hsbc.com.hk+85229964506Pramod Doke* 2) Rates are stll climbing, not rolling over: Freight indicators rose into late June, withcarriers pushing July hikes.Spot rates are cUSD6,000/40ft to USWC and cUSD7,000-8,000/40ft to USEC. Charter rates stay high; charter-to-freight gap shrinks as freight rises. AssociateBangalore 3) Demand strength looks structural, not just frontloading: Traditional China exportswere weak Jan-May (garments -1.6%, footwear -10.3%, toys -12.6%), inconsistent withexpectations of a consumer surge. Instead, demand looks driven by Al/data centrebuildout and clean tech (batteries, EVs, solar), plus data centre power infrastructure. not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations 4) Volumes broad-based; EM absorbing capacity: Trans-Pacific volumes are up c4-5% y-o-y, May strong, and June firmer. European demand is above last year's peak.Africa demand +50% YTD and LatAm +12% absorbing capacity; North America lags. 5)Tariffs may add noise but don't change the near-term setup: IEEPA removal andSection122 likelyboostedexports andTranspacific rebound.With122expiring,proposed301 tariffs look similar, so JulylAugust volumes should hold. 6) Capacity remains tight; Red Sea return is the key downside: Linerlytica sees 2026demand up 6-7% vs supply c5%. Gulf normalisation could absorb >2% fleet but Red Seareturn could unwind c6%, risking rates correction. Congestion supports tightness. 7) Earnings leverage is improving despite higherfuel: Fuel is c30% above preconflict, but opex should rise only c2-3%. With CCFI up c40-42%, profits should inflect:sector EBIT margin could rise from c5% in 1Q to c10% in 2Q, with 3Q upside if rates hold.Maersk and Hapag Lloyd could potentially raise FY26 guidance, we argue. 8)Alliances shift share but not competition orpricing power.Linerlytica says GeminiCooperation underperforms due to contract exposure, spot discounting, and hub-and-spoke costs; schedule reliability premiums may be limited. 9)Medium-term reality check-the2027-28 supplywave: Newbuild deliveries ramp-up in 2H27 and peak in 2028, with supply growth c14%, likely above demand.Ordering stays heavy (c5m TEU this year; c2m TEU YTD). Limited vessel demolitioncapacity (at most c1mTEU/year)leaves net2028growthc11-12%+.Consolidationmayshift share,bututilisation-drivenratevolatilityremainsamidhighfixed costs No country forbears The 24th edition of the EM Sentiment Survey Click to view Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited Disclosures &Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Disclosureappendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s)appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflectrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Parash Jain, Deepak Maurya, CFA, Bruce Chu, CFA and CathyHuang,CFA Equities: Stockratings and basis for financialanalysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (HSBC") believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other