Compass：AI从数据基建到生产力的机遇分析

+331421347 32sabrina.blanc@bernsteinsg.com +442076766850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 7676 7144niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com +442075502191lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com Compass: Al opportunities from data infrastructure toproductivity We previously assessed the potential risk from Al on job destruction and, by definition, onCompass.We now focus on the opportunities concerning both new business and efficiencygains, particularly those arising from the creation of new types of jobs and the growing needof the tech industry for catering services. Our estimates point to the emergence of a newaddressablemarket ofmorethan $1Obn,in the US alone,of which Compass could capture atleastitsnaturalmarketshareof15% Market sentiment has cooledrecentlyonAl-exposed names,amid fears of white-collarjoblosses atcateringcompanies suchasCompass.Marketsentimentthen improvedagainas investors focusedonmarketopportunities linkedtodata centers, with thethe sector.Aramark is expectingthe newsegment of datacenter services to generateannual revenues in the hundreds of millions of dollars.Our colleague Madison Rezaei,who recently initiated coverage on U.S.Communications Infrastructure (link)states:"we areclearly in an aggressive supply and demandmismatch,with demand scaling much fasterthan physical infrastructureWhile imbalance should persist for a few more years, with datacenterdemandgrowingata13%CAGRthrough2028. Alcouldbealsoanopportunitytooptimizeprocesses,acceleratetaskautomationandgain efficiencies across business models.Wehaveanalyzed theglobalpotential impactof Al on Compass in 2030 without changing our estimates: i) on the upside, we capture the$1.5bn additional revenues from Al building infrastructure; i) the potential loss of white-collardemand;ili)costoptimization,mainlyacross Compass'white-collarworkforce.Inourbasecasescenario,this leads to a 48bp EBITmargin improvement by2030, equivalent to>300m inadditional EBIT(8-9% of 2026e EBIT).This confirms ourview thatforcatering operators InvestmentImplications We view Compass'strategy of digital deployment, now increasingly driven by Al, as a strongpositive that could more than offset the negative impacts of the technology. We reiterate our Outperform rating. EXHIBIT 1: Potential impact of AI by 2030 - Compass simplified PL COMPASS:FROMBEARINGTHEBRUNTTOCAPTURINGTHEAIOPPORTUNITIES ISTHESTOCKMARKETOVERREACTINGTOAI?Overthepastyearandahalf,market concerns havebeenbuilding aboutthepotential impactof Aloncompanies in thecatering sector-and onwhetherclientsofcaterers (Compass,Sodexo,Elior)could beaffected.Inparticular,Compass'valuation wassignificantlyimpactedfrom rising Alfears,as investors feared increased automation coulderode itscustomerbase.Wenotethat the share price lost 20% of itsmarket value between the end of May 2025 and March2026.However,following Aramark'sannouncementofthesigningofan agreement withaglobal hyperscaler,Compass'sperformancehasreversed,andtheshareshavegained8%. REVENUESIMPACTThe shift in the employment landscape could impact catering firms in the long run. Increased automation might jeopardize the existence of some jobs in caterers'B&l end-markets.Because Al is particularly effective atautomatingrepetitive tasks,datacollectionandbasicprocessing,white-collarfunctions appearmostexposed.Compass'sentry-levelrolesrepresentnomorethan10-15% ofits c.13% exposure to white-collarfunctions in professional services,financial servicesand B&l.On thatbasis,even if around half of those roles were ultimately at risk over the next few years, the impact would equate to only about 1-1.5%oftheoverall base.Wetherefore expecttheeffecttobeverylimitedandmanageable. positive and inflation steadily increasing. total revenues) WHATIFAIWEREINSTEADACREATOROFJOBS? The development of the“Al ecosystem"couldbe perceivedas newbusiness opportunity,with new subsectors likelytoemerge. As Al-relatedcompanies are developing and scaling,they willhave ever-increasing needs for food services andintegrated services.Amongthepotentialclientswith whom the caterers already collaborate,are semiconductorand datacentercompanies. The Al ecosystem and phenomena isn't just about the tech players, it's about the entirety of the supply chain. This includes amanufacturing component, which falls within Compass's business portfolio. UNDERSTANDINGTHEUPSIDEFROMTHETHEBUILDINGOFDATACENTERSWhile the data-center industry is not particularly labor-intensive in itself, with around 100 full-time equivalents working at large sites, construction is highly labor-intensive, with 1,o00 to 2,o00 workers on site per day at the peak of the project. With projectsgenerally running for 18 to 36 months, this represents a significant amount of employment. On very large hyperscale campuses,the phased build-out continues.Beyond the construction phase,thenumberof people on site is muchmore limited. However,the working environment still needs to be attractive enoughto drawtalent, often in themiddle of nowhere. C