贵金属特别报告：美联储鹰派立场打压金价

CommoditiesPrecious Special Report Date22 June 2026 Hawks drive out bulls •Fed repricing together with resilient US macro datahas played theprimary role in pushing gold lower. This new ‘problem’ became evidentonce goldbegan diverging from oil last month.Ourrevisedbase case isfor gold to reach USD 4,800/oz in Q4,consistent with an indefinite Fed •The first FOMC meeting with Chair Warshrevealed no resistance tomarketpricing for hikes.The FOMC press conference underlinedpotentialfor a further hawkish shift,supported by a Taylor ruleprescription some80 bpshigher. On the dovish side, our house call •The usual suspects which might provide support via investment demandare notably absent, for now.The dip in goldafter the May NFP reportwasmet by continued ETF selling,whilefutures open interestsitsat a 17-year •TheChina premium over Comex has reversed to a small discount,suggestingthatChina gold importswill notbe a support for the market.The rationale could be thatChinese investors have less reason todiversify into goldas CNY remains on a strengthening trend,while •The one pillar which remains strong is central bank demand, and weexpect this to be the case for some time to come as EM central bankscatch up to DM central banks in gold holdings.However,official demand •All of the above suggestsa neutraloutlook for gold intoH2, with Fed datadependencyimplying gold data dependency.We think structuralpositivesremaininthe form of central bank demand sustaining itshigher 22 June 2026Precious Special Report Recalibrating precious forecastsWe recognise a lower forecast profile for the precious metals around which we think are risks are balanced.The challenge to gold (Link)wasfirstmostclearlylinkedto the energy price shock of the US-Iran war,but this relationship brokedown around mid-May(Figure2). Subsequently, gold’s link to Fed pricingwas Source:Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Although the sources of inflation are quite broad-based (Link) and there arenumerous reasons to doubt the disinflation narrative (Link), itisalso true thatmarket-based measures of inflation expectations are declining after the US-Iran 22 June 2026Precious Special Report Policyrisk scenarios Thetwo-sided risks fromalowerQ2starting pointof precious metal pricesareframedby monetary policy, which has dominated gold’s move lower towards USD4,000/oz.The Fed Chair’s emphasis on data dependence and elimination of Thehawkish riskiscontained in theJune FOMC meeting’sconfirmation ofthetightening bias.Fed Chair Warshstatedthat “we have missed [our inflationtarget] for five years, and we are going to fix that.”1Our US Econ team explainsthe hawkish risk is best illustratedby the fact thataround mid-2025, Fed policywas near standard policy rules,so thatlate 2025 Fed cuts(characterized as“insurance or risk management cuts”) moved policy below those rules, just asCore PCE began to move higher(Link).The Taylor rule prescription usingBloombergconsensus year-end forecasts for Core PCE(3.1%)and On thedovishrisk,with theFed’s elimination of forwardguidance and heighteneddata dependency,the appearance ofdisinflationary datacouldwellreduce themarket’sFed pricing from the currentpeak of+44 bps for March 2027.Our houseview remains of a Fed on indefinite hold near neutral (Link), although June FOMC“crystallisedrisks for rate hikes”(Link).The US-Iran memorandum ofunderstanding, increase inshippingflows through the Strait ofHormuz,steepdrop in oil prices, inflation swaps and TIPS breakevens all point toreasons why 22 June 2026Precious Special Report Source:Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Last but not least,FedChair Warshwas equivocal on thenature of thecurrentpolicy setting. Chair Warsh indicatedthat“Broadly I would say there Fed policyappears to be somewhat restrictive”2in the context of the housing market, butlesssowhen viewed in the context of financial markets(“And the best way I candescribe is it's uneven”)3.For what it’s worth,Bloomberg’s FCI indexshowsa Source:Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Source:Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research 22 June 2026Precious Special Report Recent tightening examples If market pricing of Fed policy remains the only variable, then our revised year-end forecast of USD 4,800/oz lies toward the dovish end of the spectrum (Figure7). However, the history of the gold market is one that reflects a constant shiftingof drivers, and the 2022-23 example is worth recalling. Well before the last hike Source:Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Research Short-term flow factorsappear weakWe look at three components of short-term flow which are not encouraging at this moment in time.First, ETF assets across US, Europe, China, Japan and India havereached a new low for the year.Since 11-Jun, ETF investors havebeensellersinto therise in gold prices,Figure10, with the exception oflast Friday19-Junwhich marked thestrongestday of gold ETF accumulationsince17-Apr.This is As an aside, we observe