Execute push up one - BGN increase to buy

Italy | Banks Execution Driving Upside – BGN Raised to Buy We upgrade Banca Generali to Buy, withc.20% potential upside, as flows areturning and visibility improves, with April–May momentum supporting a clearerinflection into 2H26. The Alleanza partnership and Intermonte acquisitionshould structurally lift margins and commissions, yet we still view their impact—and rate upside—as under-reflected in consensus EPS. Reiterate Buy on Fineco, Banca Generali, upgraded to Buy: Banca Generali has been the subject of growing client interestsince the end of 2025, mainly thanks to the Alleanza partnership and the deployment of theIntermonte acquisition. We remained on the sidelines until now, as business results were moredownbeat compared to those of direct competitors. However, both April and May flows haveshown clear business momentum, and we expect the delivery of the two projects to sustain thatmomentum in 2H26. We think consensus is not fully embedding the upside from these initiatives At Banca Generali, new business initiatives are expected to support flows and margins from2H26 onwards, notably through the Alleanza partnership, which should improve margins on AuM,deposits and AuC flows, and the Intermonte acquisition (completed in 2025), which is set todeliver revenue synergies, boost commission income and strengthen the group’s ability to captureentrepreneur-related business across both CIB and private banking. The Mediobanca takeover Reiterate Buy on Fineco:We see upside from the various projects in the pipeline at Fineco, namelythe launch of the securities lending business (2H26), the roll-out of the platform in other geographies(2H26), and the launch of the new, AI-powered Fineco App (2027), the launch of crypto trading (assoon as approvals are received). In this note, we focus on the EPS upside from Securities Lendingand estimate a single-digit positive EPS effect, which we now include in our numbers. The wealth of Source: Jefferies, Company data Reiterate Hold on Banca Mediolanum. The business has done remarkably well over 2025 and in2026 in terms of AuM flows; however, we feel the investment case is well understood, and we seeless EPS upside vs the Street than peers. Hence, we reiterate our Hold rating. BMED trades at 12.1x Estimate changes: We increase our EPS by c.5% on average, mainly on higher rate assumptions(3M Euribor at 250bps by 3Q26 vs 200bps before), a more detailed modeling of the Alleanza andIntermonte initiatives at Banca Generali, and our fresh estimate of revenues from securities lendingat Fineco. Higher EPS explains higher target prices, alongside lower CoE at BGN. Marco Nicolai * | Equity Analyst+39 02 3601 1946 | mnicolai@jefferies.com Joseph Dickerson * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8309 | jdickerson@jefferies.com Summary of Changes Banca Generali Banca Generali has been the subject of growing client interest since the end of 2025, mainly thanksto the Alleanza partnership and the deployment of the Intermonte acquisition. We remained on thesidelines until now, as business results were more downbeat compared to those of direct competitors.However, April and May flows have shown clear business momentum, and we expect the delivery ofthe two projects to sustain that momentum in 2H26. We think consensus is not fully embedding the Banca Generali, bumpy flows to take a more decisive upward trend in 2H We expect improving momentum in flows at Banca Generali, as demonstrated by the most recentdatapoints Exhibit 6). Our reasons for this increased momentum are as follows: Two main initiatives are: I) the partnership with Alleanza, which will lead to improved marginson AuM, deposit and AuC flows. II) The acquisition of Intermonte, concluded in 2025, will deliverrevenue synergies, driving commission income, and will give the business a hedge to capture dragged on business visibility, weighing on flows and recruiting. As that situation settled, businessvisibility improved, with recruitment trends improving again and net inflows rebounding. Thisshould support net asset inflows in 2H26. As Exhibit 7 shows, Financial advisors grew by 3% YoY New strategic initiatives are expected to give further fuel The "Insurbanking" partnership with Alleanza serves as a powerful growth engine, aiming tosignificantly expand Banca Generali's reach in the affluent customer segment. The strategic objectiveis to combine Alleanza's widespread insurance distribution network of more than 10,000 advisors (ofwhom 2,380 have passed the Financial Advisors exam) with Banca Generali's advanced banking and Notably, the Alleanza network represents only a part of Generali's broader network. Thus, if the modelworks well, there could be scope for expansion within Generali's other distribution channels. As Exhibit 8 shows, the partnership is expected to bring in c.€3.3bn inflows at the midpoint by 2030(€0.65bn of inflows per year), split between AuC (with relatively low marginality) and deposits (with highmarginalit