全球投资组合经理摘要：处处有转折点

Inflections Everywhere We provide context and perspective on research acrossregions and asset classes. This week, we examine theaccelerated ramp in AI demand; discuss future AI winners infinancial services and introduce the AI harness; and analysepersonal auto pricing, loss cost trends, and Schedule Preserves. Equity Product Management Group Terence Malone*+ 1 212 526 7578terence.malone@barclays.comBCI, US Rob Bate*+44 (0)20 7773 3576rob.bate@barclays.comBarclays, UK •AI Acceleration:We believe that AI adoption is accelerating faster than expected, withdemand materially exceeding prior assumptions and steepening the industry’s S-curve,supported by native AI applications such as Claude Code and Codex, alongside underlyingmodel improvements. We highlight that gains in orchestration, tool calling, and modelaccuracy are driving enterprise adoption much faster than previously forecast, pullingforward revenue expectations across the broader AI stack. As a result, we expect AI revenueand capex to increase more quickly, with the industry reaching roughly $200bn in exit ARR byYE26 and $130bn+ in CY26 revenue. Our capex expectation increases as well, with the peaknow pushed beyond 2028 and supported by roughly 36 GW of next-generation computeinfrastructure, as near-term demand growth continues to strain capacity. Unit economics areimproving at AI labs and hyperscalers, and we continue to see accelerators as the mostattractive part of the semiconductor value chain over the next several years. FICC Product Management GroupJennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, US Jill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US •The AI Harness:We think that winners in financial services AI will be those that can mosteffectivelyconvert expert workflows into governed AI-native systems. We believe the AIHarness is a secure, observable, model-agnostic control layer that connects AI systems tofinancial workflows in a governed manner. We think the concept is not simply anothersoftwarelayer, but rather a broader operating paradigm for deploying AI in production. Ourframework shows the harness enables AI systems and agents to produce controlled,auditable, production-ready outcomes that are embedded within workflows. We believes this Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. * This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other important disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks inthis publication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live. FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 34.FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 34.FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 35.Completed: 06-Jun-26, 00:55 GMTReleased: 07-Jun-26, 13:00 GMTRestricted - External governance and control plane will increasingly determine which financial institutions lead orlag in the next phase of AI adoption. •Recalibrating Personal Auto:We conducted a deep dive of the personal auto landscape toreassess loss cost trends, pricing dynamics, and reserve adequacy to inform our updatedmargin outlook. Recent company commentary and data points suggest a more challengingbackdrop; as a result, we recalibrate our attritional loss ratio assumptions, driving up our lossratio outlook for 2027 and reducing our EPS estimates. That said, carriers retain meaningfulcapacity for favorable prior-year development throughout 2026, although we expect a muchmore muted favorable release profile in 2027 as price vs. loss cost spreads keep widening tothe downside. Investor focus has alsoshiftedtoward the long-term implications ofautonomous vehicle adoption and the potentialeffecton the total addressable market. Events Best of Barclays U.S. Internet & Semiconductors AI's S-Curve Is Steepening Ross Sandler BCI, US | Alex Hughes BCI, US | Michael DiSanto BCI, US | Owen Clendenin BCI, US |Alexander Kessinger BCI, US | Tom O'Malley BCI, US | Kyle Bleustein BCI, US EQUITY RESEARCH U.S. InternetPositiveU.S. Semiconductors &Semiconductor Capital EquipmentNeutral Excerpted from U.S. Interne