全球经济濒临贸易冲击：经济复苏风险加剧

Juni2021 GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOK GLOBAL GROWTH OUTLOOKGlobal economy on brink of trade shockRisks to economic recovery growing Juni 2022 ▪The frail upward trend ofthe global economy is in danger of coming to anabrupt halt.Growth is set to drop to around 2.7 percent in 2025 if President Trump Die amerikanische Lokomotive der WeltwirtschaftAufschwung im Norden,Risiken im Süden▪The US economy is heading for growth of just under 2.5 percent (2.4 percent)next year.The planned tax concessions will have a slightly expansionary impact, while the envisaged course in trade and immigration policy is set to curb growth. ▪New tariffs from the United States could well cause a slump in growth in theEU with individual countries sliding into recession.Without new tariffs, growth ▪Germany is still grappling with low global demand and maintaining its appealas a business location.Economic output in Germany is in line for stagnation in ▪China’seconomy would still grow by around 3.5 percent next year even witha trade war.If an all-out trade war is averted, China is set to grow by 4.5 percent. ▪The monetary policy of the large central banks will be put to the test this year.The Federal Reserve is expected to keep key interest rates at around four percent, ▪Diverging financial policy is impacting exchange rates.Both the Trumpadministration’s expansionary financial policy and the gradualconsolidation inthe ▪OECDcountries need structural reform to mobilise investment in the twin Content Gradual recovery throughout 2024...................................................................................................2Unfavourable financing terms keep investment levels down................................................................4Momentum in the United States and some emerging countries, Europe and Japan remain weak......5Global trade stepped up solidly in spring 2024.....................................................................................5Early indicators still weak......................................................................................................................5Outlook 2025........................................................................................................................................7Monetary policy around the world.....................................................................................................9Progress made in combating inflation in 2024......................................................................................9US monetary policy in uncertain waters..............................................................................................11Growth concerns in the euro area signalise swifter monetary easing................................................11The Bank of England tackles persistent price pressure......................................................................12In Japan inflationary pressure decreasing despite wage increases....................................................13Fiscal policy around the world.........................................................................................................13.............................................................................................................................................................14Financial markets: financing conditions continue to improve.....................................................14Industrial production........................................................................................................................18Global industrial production slow to pick up momentum.....................................................................18Advanced economies: only Asian countries excluding Japan grow....................................................19Looking closer, industrial activity in the euro area was down by an estimated three percent in the yearoverall and in the United Kingdom down by one percent. The US industry also failed to draw level yearon year. Production in the advanced Asian economies excluding Japan looks to have grown by a solidfive percent, while Japan’s industrial activity was down by a good two percent, according to currentestimates. In the other advanced economies, we estimate that industrial production rose slightly in2024 overall.........................................................................................................................................19Emerging countries: growth momentum primarily from China and Central and Eastern Europe.......20Global trade........................................................................................................................................21United States.....................................................................................................................................22US economy in good shape in2024...................................................................................................22