村田制作所（6981）：对高端MLCC产品的投资回报率极高

Investment in Cutting-edgeMLCC Products is Highly President Nakajima said that the firm expects medium/long-termdemand for cutting-edge MLCC products to expand not only in Murata Manufacturing (6981.T, 6981 JT) Electronic Components|Japan Stock RatingOverweightIndustry ViewIn-LinePrice target¥5,100Shr price, close (May 26, 2026)¥8,077Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)¥15,042.3Avg daily trading value (bn)¥26.3 Key Takeaways The firm doesn't plan to raise prices for existing MLCC products, but still expectsASP to keep rising and the mix to continue improving as sales of high-ASP The firm is investing an additional ¥80bn for MLCC capacity expansion; note thatinvestment in additional processes for cutting-edge products is highly efficient. Murata Manufacturing is capable of supplying both MLCCs and silicon capacitorsfor package substrates, both as embedded applications and for mounting. Below we summarize the presentation by President Norio Nakajima at the sell-sideanalyst small meeting held at 10am on May 27. (1) The firm expects the share of AI/DC-related sales in MLCC sales to rise from 10-15% in F3/26 to 20-25% in F3/27, with AI/DC-related MLCC sales projected toincrease 85-90% YoY. (2) For AI/DC applications, the total capacitance required for MLCCs is increasingsubstantially, driving rapid demand growth for cutting-edge, compact, high-capacitance MLCCs. Murata Manufacturing has been expanding MLCC production (3) The additional ¥80bn investment is mainly for additional processes for cutting-edge products, and investment efficiency is extremely high compared with theongoing investment to increase production capacity by 10% annually. The firm Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investment (4) Murata Manufacturing has not raised prices on existing MLCC products and doesnot plan to do so going forward. However, the firm expects the ASP to continuerising given that (1) launches of new cutting-edge products will continue, and For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. (5) Efforts to embed capacitors in GPU/TPU package substrates have been underway formore than 10 years, but there are many challenges, including connection reliability.Murata Manufacturing can supply both MLCCs and silicon capacitors for embedded (6) Cutting-edge MLCCs are supplied mainly for AI/DC applications, but the firm expectsdemand for AI edge devices to increase over the medium term. AI edge devices require Valuation Methodology and Risks Murata Manufacturing (6981.T) Derived from our base case and a DCF model, with the following assumptions: 2.2% risk-freerate, 1.09 equity beta, 3.7% risk premium, yielding 6.2% WACC; zero growth from F3/36. Risks to Upside MetroCirc, MLCCs, and RF devices sales could outstrip our forecasts if high-end smartphonedemand is stronger than we envision. Risks to Downside nSince Murata's core products are in all sorts of electronic devices, demand and unitprices could fluctuate widely due to changes in the global economy.nIf demand for high-end smartphones is weaker than we envision.nWe estimate a ¥1/$ change impacts OP by ¥4.5bn. Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared by Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. and its affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley").For important disclosures, stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website For valuation methodology and risks associated with any recommendation, rating or price target referenced in this research report, please contact the Client Support Team as follows: US/Canada+1 800 303-2495; Hong Kong +852 2848-5999; Latin America +1 718 754-5444 (U.S.); London +44 (0)20-7425-8169; Singapore +65 6834-6860; Sydney +61 (0)2-9770-1505; Tokyo +81(0)3-6836-9000. Alternatively you may contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Management), New York, NY 10036 USA. Analyst Certification The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not Global Research Conflict Management Policy Morgan Stanley Research has been published in accordance with our confl