GXO物流：盈利空间广阔；上调至增持评级

Margin Opportunities Abound; GXO leadership is likely to target a more profitable futureleveraging automation and robotics to achieve best-in-classmargins while focusing growth ambitions in the North THE 2026 EXTEL SURVEY IS NOW OPEN Market Cap (USD mn)Shares Outstanding (mn)Free Float (%)52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)Dividend Yield (%)Return on Equity TTM (%) Support our industry-leadinganalysts with 5-Star votes inthis year’s Extel All-America We appreciate your 5 Star Vote in the Airfreight & Surface Transportation category. We see long-term value in GXO shares, driving our upgrade to Overweight (from EqualWeight), as the company pursues a more profitable future with a renewed focus on growthin the lucrative North American contract logistics market.GXO shares have underperformedthis year (down 17% vs. S&P YTD), pressured by a convergence of market fears that has weighedheavily on the stock and, in our view, created an opportunity for patient investors. The Iran-USconflict, and the correspondingeffecton an already fragile European consumer, have stokedfear among GXO investors; further, Amazon's recent announcement of consolidated logisticsofferingsearlier this month has created market concerns of a new competitive threat to North America Transportation Brandon R. Oglenski+1 212 526 8903brandon.oglenski@barclays.comBCI, US Eric Morgan, CFA+1 212 526 9642eric.morgan@barclays.com David Zazula, CFA+1 212 526 5108david.zazula@barclays.com long-term guidance pointing to multi-year revenue growth potential and higher margins,supporting meaningful EPS and free cash flow expansion. Recent European and Amazon concerns for GXO are valid but likely less impactful on thelong-term earnings outlook for the company.GXO under prior CEO leadership was quiteEurope-focused, completing three major UK or continental contract logistics acquisitionsbetween 2021 and 2024 and increasing Europe revenue exposure by 17 points. The risk of higherfuel prices driving further malaise for the European consumer has weighed on stocks such asGXO (we find European core retail sales recently lagged the US by 230 bps; see "A State ofTransport" for more details). However, GXO's recentshiftunder new leadership to focus on USexpansion should reduce investors' weighting of potential weakness in Europe.Further, Amazon's recently announced re-branded supply chainoffering(see "Amazon Logistics Management is targeting outsized growth in the US and a narrowing of the margin gap topeers, both of which could drive material earnings expansion.With respect to margins, Mr.Kelleher has noted targeting margins "at or better than [GXO's] peer group." He specified at ourFebruary Industrial Select Conference (see "Conference Takeaways") that the peer group If GXO executes on margin improvement and cash conversion plans, we see materialupside potential in the company's shares.One challenge in valuing GXO is the lack of directlycomparable companies, with only the relatively small ID Logistics (not covered) in France as a(nearly) pure-play publicly traded contract logistics provider. Looking across the spectrum ofpublic companies with exposure to the contract logistics market, we see freight forwardingproviders such as DSV and Kuehne Nagel (and, to a lesser extent, Expeditors) trading at elevatedmultiples due to large swaths of asset-light brokerage exposure; while GXO's owned assetfootprint is relatively small, when accounting for operating leases, the company'seffectiveassetexposure is considerable. Asset-intensive parcel integrators DHL and UPS, as well as truckingprovider Ryder, trade at lower multiples (6-8x 2027E US GAAP equivalent EV/EBITDA; see Figure North America Transportation GXO: Margin Opportunities Abound; Upgrade to We value GXO shares at $65 (was $58), based on an 7.5x EV/EBITDA (was 8.5x) on our 2027EBITDA forecast of $1.1bn (was $1.0bn). Analyst(s) Certification(s): I, Brandon R. Oglenski, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects the Availability of Disclosures: Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the f