干散货运价月报：货盘充裕支撑运输需求，5月市场延续高位运行

目录 【【【【【【................................................................................2【【【【【【................................................................................2 第二部分基本面情况............................................................................................3 【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【.................................................................................................................................3 【【【【【4【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【Capesize【【【【【【【【【【.....................................................................................................................9 【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 第三部分分析与展望..........................................................................................22 免责声明.................................................................................................................23 货盘充裕支撑运输需求，5月市场延续高位运行 第一部分前言概要 【行情回顾】 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428号研究员：贾瑞林电话：021-65789256邮箱：jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn期货从业资格证号：F3084078投资咨询资格证号：Z0018656 5【【【【【【【【【【【【【BDI【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2026【5【26【【BDI【【【3085【【【【【【130.22%【 作者承诺 本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑均基于本人的职业理解，通过合理判断得出结论，本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观点。本报告所载的全部内容只提供给客户做参考之用，并不构成对客户的投资建议。 【市场展望】 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【考虑未来矿企年中发运冲量结束以及西非雨季来临，矿石运输需求下降或将难以支撑运价维持高位，预计6-7月散货租金水平或将震荡走弱，但考虑今年市场存在较多的供应链扰动，整体租金费率中枢将不弱于往年。【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【6【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【16-18%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【6【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 风险提示：中东地缘风险持续、巴拿马运河拥堵、厄尔尼诺天气影响 第二部分基本面情况 一、5月矿石煤炭等货盘充裕支撑现货租金，干散货市场延续高位运行态势 5月干散货租金维持震荡上行的态势，BDI指数远超过去两年点位，市场整体表现较为亮眼。【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【2026【5【22【【BDI【2991【【【【+123.04%,5【BDI【【【【3018【【【【【【+23.55%【【【BCI【4954【【【【+163.23%【【【【4989【【【【【【+29.58%【BPI【2223【【【【+75.18%【【【【2305.53【【【【【【+20.53%【BSI【1567【【【【【1544.33【【【【【【+10.62%【 【【【【【干散货市场正从快速上涨进入高位盘整的阶段，目前矿石、粮食这类大宗散货的货盘依旧稳定，与此同时钢材、熟料、化肥等区域性的小宗散货货盘持续存在，短期现货租金仍维持高位，考虑未来矿企年中发运冲量结束以及西非雨季来临，矿石运输需求下降或将难以支撑运价维持高位，预计6-7月散货租金水平或将震荡走弱，但考虑今年市场存在较多的供应链扰动，整体租金费率中枢将不弱于往年【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 5月货盘整体较为充裕，支撑海岬型船市场租金费率维持高位。【【【【【【【【【【 干散货运价月报 2026年5月28日 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【BCI【【【【【【5000【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【不过月末国内山西突发安全事故引发市场供给收缩预期导致上游原料价格大幅冲高，促使下游钢铁企业补库需求激增，远洋运输订单集中释放推升大船租金【BCI【【【【【【5000【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2026【5【22【【C3【【【【-【【【【【36.241【【/【【【【+93.23%【C5【【【-【【【15.625【【/【【【【+86.9%【【【【【【【【【【【 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 巴拿马船型方面，受美洲谷物以及煤炭运输需求的支撑，现货租船市场整体表现亮眼，5月运价中枢较上月出现明显上行【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【BPI【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【2026【5【22【【P6【【【【-【【【【【【【【【【【【【【19914【【/【【【【+60.3%【P3A【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【20892【【/【【【【+93.18%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【5【【【【【【【【【【 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 【【【【【【【【【【Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 灵便型船市场方面，随着东南亚煤炭货盘的稳定放量以及美湾地区的局部运输需求以及船舶供应逐步趋紧等因素的影响，支撑月内现货租金维持稳步上行的态势，而月末随着船舶供应的增多以及区域的供需失衡等因素的影响，租金小幅回调但整体维持高位【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【近期小船即期市场上虽存在区域供需失衡以及较宽的买卖价差等问题，但钢材、熟料、化肥、粮食、区域煤炭等货盘持续放量，预计短期现货租金仍具韧性。 【【【【【【【【2026【5【22【【S2【【【-【【/【【【【【【【【【【【【【【18756【【/【【【【+76.01%【S3【【【-【【【【【【【【【【【20750【【/【【【【+82.02%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 数据来源：银河期货，Clarksons 二、供给：4月干散货交付运力维持稳定，下半年Capesize将成为新船交付的主力 【【【【【4【【【【【【【【【【【44【【340【【【【【【【-0.57%【【【+30.89%【【【【【【【【【【4【【【【【【【【【【【【【51【【【【470【【【【【5【【【【【【【142.4【【【【【【【【【【【【【13.2%【 【【【【【【【【【【2026【5【【【【【【【【【【【1078【【【【【【【【+2.99%【【【Capesize【【【【【408.54【【【【【【【【37.89%【【【+1.2%【Panamax【【【【【276.8【【【【【【【【25.7%【【【+4.7%【Handymax【【【【【259.16【【【【【【【【24%【【【+4.1%【Handysize【【【【【134.3【【【【【【【【12.5%【【【+3.6%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2026【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 干散货运价月报 2026年5月28日 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2026【【【5-12【【【31.83【【【【【【【【【【【【【【Capesize【【【【9.31【【【【【【【【29.24%,Panamax【【【【10.62【【【【【【【【33.36%【Handymax【【【【7.98【【【【【【【【25.1%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 数