中国经济：全球人工智能热潮推动出口周期增强

Global AIboom leads to stronger exports Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk China’s exports in Apr notably rebounded, boosted bytheglobal AI-hardwareboom and rising demandforgreen-tech products, with shipments improvingacross major partners.We believe the export strength should support theeconomicresilience, manufacturing output and RMB stability in the near term,but the quality of growth is increasingly K-shaped:Sectors benefiting from theexternal industrial cycle remain highly resilient, while overall domestic demandstays relatively subdued.Strongimport strength reflected chip-price inflation,energyandraw material costsmore than a clearconsumption recovery. Policy Source: Wind, CMBIGM Exports rebounded sharply.Exports rose 14.1% in Apr, well above Mar’s2.5%and market expectations,helped by resilient overseas demand,inventory restocking and AI-related production chains. Exports to the USrose 11.3% in Apr after falling 26.5% in Mar, while shipments to SoutheastAsia and Europe also increased, and exports to Japan rose 4%. However,4M26 exports to the US still fell 10.2%, suggesting the April rebound does Source: Wind, CMBIGM Exports remained boosted by global AI boom.High-tech andmechanical-electrical exports remained the main growth drivers in Apr.Integrated circuit exports almost doubledby rising 99.6% in Apr, while PCexports also acceleratedby 47.3%, with ICs and PCs contributing more thanhalf of headline export growth. Auto exports stayed robust at around 44%,likely supported by elevated oil prices and stronger overseas demand forChinese EVs and fuel-efficient models. However, the semiconductor storyshould be interpreted carefully: IC export value rose 99.6% in Apr, while Imports stayed elevateddue totech inputs, chip prices and the energyshock. Imports rose 25.3% YoY in Apr, still far above the pace impliedbydomestic demand indicators. The composition points to a supply-chain andprice story. IC imports remained strong in value terms, while processing andassembly imports stayed elevated, reflecting AI-related demand and highermemory-chip prices. At the same time, crude oil import value rose sharplyeven as volumes contracted, showing the Middle East-related energy shockhad started to feed into China’s import bill. Commodity volume signals were Stronger trade growth pointed toamore diverged economyin 2026.April trade data suggest China is not simply benefiting from a traditionalexport recovery, but from a more concentrated “external industrial cycle” driven byglobal AI-hardware boom andenergy-transition products.Theexport strengthshould support the economic resilience,manufacturingoutputand RMB stability in the near term, but it does not signal a broaddemand recovery, in our view. The same forces lifting exports are alsoraising imports, as chip-priceinflation and the energy shock push up theimport bill, while domestic demand remains uneven. China is exporting high-endmanufacturing capacity but importing cost pressure,leaving theeconomy more K-shaped rather than more balanced. Policy easing maystaymutedin the near term, especially with external demand still resilient, Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole orin part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by TheHong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial pos