Gambol Pet (A) 1Q26业绩不及预期；短期逆风持续；目标价下调至45元人民币；重申跑输大市

1Q26 miss; near-term headwinds persist;cutPO to RMB45; reiterate Underperform Reiterate Rating:UNDERPERFORM| PO:45.00 CNY| Price:58.13 CNY 23 April 2026 1Q26 miss;near-term headwinds persist Gambol’s 2025 results were largely in line, with revenue/NPAT +29%/+8% YoY (or+29%/+4% in 4Q25). Self-brand held relatively well and recorded 40% growth in 2025,while NPM faced pressure (-2ppt) amid higher SG&A cost. 1Q26 was below expectation,with revenue/NAPT +11%/-40% YoY, against a relatively high base (1Q25 NPAT +38%).Self-brand growth remained resilient at 20%, but OEM declined by c.20% in 1Q26. Softtopline and disappointing margin were driven by: 1) adjustment in self-brand productsand channels; 2) OEM pressure from 1Q25 high base, rising raw material price, FXimpact, and product price reshuffling; 3) SBC expense (c.RMB30mn in 1Q) and risingdepreciation (from new production base). We expect near-term headwinds to persist,given ongoing self-brand adjustments, domestic competition, and uncertainty of OEM. Inaddition, the company’s strategy of prioritizing self-brand growth over profitability islikely to lift A&P expense ratio, exerting margin pressure. Accordingly, we cut our2026/27E EPS by 12%/12% and our PO by 17% to RMB45 (cut P/E multiple from 30x to25x on sector de-rating). We reiterate U/P rating on Gambol Pet, due to headwinds fromboth self-brand and OEM business. The stock currently trades at 32x our 2026E P/E,with NPAT CAGR of 13% during 2025-28E, which seems stretched. Equity Alice Ma>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 8752alice.ma@bofa.com Chen Luo, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 2009chen.luo@bofa.com 2025& 1Q26 results highlights2025:Revenue was +29% YoY. By products, staple food/snacks/health care products were +54%/+2%/+46%, accounted for 61%/38%/1% of total in 2025. By channel, self-brand/OEM were +40%/+6%, contributed 73%/26% of sales. GPM was +22bp to 42.5%,on top of product-mix upgrade. SG&A/sales were +219bp to 29.8%, boosted by risingS&D expense ratio (+2.5ppt) from self-brand marketing investment. As such, NPAT was+8% YoY with NPM -197bp to 9.9%.1Q26:Revenue was +11%, with self-brand rising20%+, but OEM -20% YoY. GPM was largely flat YoY. SG&A/revenue was up 5.4ppt at29.8%, due to operating deleverage. NPAT was -40% YoY, with NPM of 7.5% (-6.3ppt). OEM:Original EquipmentManufacturer >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 11 to 13. Analyst Certification on page 7. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 7.12962316 iQprofileSMGambol Pet (A) Company SectorFood Producers Company Description Founded in 2006, Gambol Pet is the leading pet foodcompany in China. Gambol Pet has a pet food self-brandand OEM business, operates major production bases inChina and Thailand. The company owns China's largest petfood brand "Myfoodie", which enjoys a market share of6.2%, as of 2024, according to Euromonitor. Investment Rationale We rate Gambol Pet Underperform. Despite the likelihoodto continue leveraging strategic growth of the China petfood market over the medium-term, we believe valuationseems stretched for Gambol Pet. Besides, the company islikely to face headwinds from both intense competitionfrom the domestic market and tariff pressure in the OEMbusiness. Stock Data Price to Book Value4.5x Earnings revision Exhibit1: Gambol Pet: Earnings revisionWe cut our 2026/27E NPAT by12%/12% We cut our 2026/27E NPAT by 12%/12%, and our PO by 17% to RMB45. Our PO isderived from a 50/50 blend of P/E and DCF methodology. Our P/E-based valuation isRMB44.9, derived from 25x 2026E P/E (cut from 30x on sector de-rating). The P/Emultiple is 32% below its historical average due to a slowdown in growth. Our DCF-based valuation is RM45.1, based on a 10.3% WACC (3% risk-free rate and 9.0% marketrisk premium), 0.85x beta, and 3.5% terminal growth (all unchanged). Results at a glance Exhibit2:Gambol Pet:Results at a glance2025/1Q26 revenue were +29%/+11% YoY Focus charts Source:Meritco, BofA Global Research Exhibit7:Gambol Pet: P/E bandGambol Pet currently trades at25x fwd P/E, lower than itshistorical average of 37x Financials Price objective basis & risk Gambol Pet (XYEDF) Our PO for Gambol Pet Foods is RMB45, derived from a 50/50 blend of P/E and DCFvaluations. Our P/E based value is RMB44.9, derived from 25x 2026E P/E. Our targetmultiple is 32% lower than the comp