地缘经济碎片化带来的金融稳定风险

January2026 ECB/ESRBworkstream onfinancial stability risks fromgeoeconomic fragmentation Contents Executive summary2 4Transmission of geopolitical risk26 4.1Macro-financial transmission of geopolitical risk264.2Tail risks to macro-financial conditions in the EU354.3EU country findings49 5Financial market impact of geopolitical risks53 5.1Geopolitical risk and financial market spillovers535.2EU financial market reaction to US political risk shocks58 6Impact of geopolitical risk on euro area financial institutions 6.1Impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on euro area banks6.2US economic policy uncertainty and euro area bank lending6.3Geopolitical shocks and euro area sectoral portfolio reallocation Box 3The UCITS sector in Luxembourg in the face of the Russianinvasion of Ukraine80 References83 Annex 91 Executivesummary Geoeconomic fragmentation and geopolitical risk have emerged in recentyears as defining challenges for economies worldwide, profoundly reshapingthe global economic and financial landscape.Heightened geopolitical tensions,trade frictions, and regulatory divergence have created a world where political andeconomic spheres are increasingly intertwined. These developments havetransformed the nature of uncertainty faced by policymakers and financialinstitutions, as geopolitical shocks transmit through global markets, disrupt trade andinvestment flows, and potentially impact financial stability. This report examines the link between geopolitical and geoeconomic risks andfinancial stability.It introduces a comprehensive framework for regular monitoringof geopolitical risks, integrating a wide array of quantitative indicators with a richempirical modelling foundation to evaluate the impact on the financial sector. Theframework is conceivedas an instrument for policymakers and financial authorities,enabling a systematic assessment of how geopolitical developments affect macro-financial conditions. The work makes three main contributions to risk monitoring.First, it establishes a monitoring toolkit for indicator-based analysis of geopoliticalrisks that can be readily integrated into existing financial stability frameworks.Second, it explores the macro-financial transmission of geopolitical shocks usingstate-of-the-art econometric models. Third, it draws on granular datasets todocument how banks and non-banks adjust to geopolitical shocks and periods ofelevated policy uncertainty. The framework categorizes geopolitical risks into five broad groups, eachcapturing facets and channels that can amplify macro-financial vulnerabilitiesandimpact financial stability.The categories are: (i) military conflicts and wars; (ii)infrastructure vulnerabilities; including energy and digital systems; (iii) tradedisruptions and sanctions; (iv) capital and financial risks; and (v) political or societalfactors. Together, thesedimensions shape the complex landscape of geopoliticalrisk. The framework also identifies the main channels through which these risksaffect financial stability–financial, real-economy, and operational. This reportfocuses on the financial channel, where spillbacks occur through tighter financialconditions, higher risk premia, and financial market stress. As a result,financialinstitutions may face heightened credit, market, liquidity, oroperationalrisks.Moreover, existing vulnerabilities and feedback loops can act as amplifiers,transforming localised disturbances into systemic risks with the potential to threatenfinancial stability. The empirical analysis relies on a broad set of 40 geopolitical indicatorscovering thefiverisk categories identified inthe framework.These metricsinclude high-frequency market-based measures and slower-moving cyclical andstructural indicators. Statistical and econometric selection criteria were used toidentify the most relevant indicators for visual monitoring toolsand econometricanalysis. The geopolitical indicators heatmap (GEO heatmap) can be embedded in broader risk monitoring frameworks to support ongoing financial stabilityassessments. The monitoring toolsused in the analysisconfirm that the prevailinggeopolitical risks have intensified in recent years,as captured bytrends ingeoeconomic fragmentation, geopolitical tensions and heightened policyuncertainty.Measures of policy uncertainty haveespeciallysurged during 2024 and2025, driven primarily by a sharp increase in global economic and trade policyuncertainty. These developments have been accompanied by a 27% rise in tradedisputes at the World Trade Organization between 2015and 2024 combined withregulatory divergence. Asignificant dichotomy emergesbetweenameasured riseof geopolitical riskand the impact for the economy and financial stability.While indicators ofuncertainty have surgedandmodel-based results indicate substantial downside risksforthe real economy, measures of financial volatility have remained contained orquickly reverted after short-lived spikes.Growth-at-Risk (GaR) estimates–capturin