马杜罗之后的委内瑞拉：政治与石油部门重置的影响

Implications from the political andoil sector reset The removal of Maduro from power opens a path towardspolitical transition. In this cross-asset note, we explore theimplications for Venezuela, its oil sector and its sovereigncredit. We also outline the likely implications for the relevantinternational energy companies. EconomicsAlejandro Arreaza(i)+1 212 412 3021alejandro.arreaza@barclays.comBCI, US Sovereign Credit StrategyJason Keene(i)+1 212 526 7275jason.keene@barclays.comBCI, US FICC RESEARCH •The US military operation in Venezuela has finally materialized.This is the beginning of agradual transition process, which appears to be led by a group headed by Vice PresidentDelcy Rodriguez. U.S. Integrated Oil & E&P Betty Jiang+1 212 526 3557betty.jiang@barclays.comBCI, US •If the latest developments were to lead to a potential easing in the US sanctions policyand access to multilateral financing, this could aid an economic recovery.A relatively lowbase could lead to double-digit GDP growth, and low-hanging fruit lead to a potentialincrease of oil production of 200-300kb/d through 2026, from its current c.1mn b/d; however,the sustainability of that recovery will depend on the final shape of the political transition. North America Midstream and Refining Theresa Chen, CFA+1 212 526 7195theresa.chen@barclays.comBCI, US •Sovereign credit strategy:Just 14 hoursafterwe downgraded Venezuela to Underweight,the United States conducted a successful mission to extract and apprehend Maduro. With ourchange in view having been quickly overtaken by events, we upgrade Venezuela back toMarket Weight. Bonds are likely to be several points higher at the Monday open. European Integrated EnergyLydia Rainforth, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 6669lydia.rainforth@barclays.comBarclays, UK Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. CommoditiesAmarpreet Singh(ii)+1 212 526 1672amarpreet.x.singh@barclays.comBCI, US Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. (i)This author is a debt research analyst in the Fixed Income, Currencies and CommoditiesResearch department and is neither an equity research analyst nor subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to analysts who produce debt researchreports under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. (ii)This author is a member of the Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities Researchdepartment and is not an equity or debt research analyst. FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 16. •Commodities:This is a negative development for oil prices and we expect a $2-3/b weaknessin the near term, as the Venezuela discussion hasshiftedfrom a potential disruption due tothe blockade of sanctioned vessels to a potential recovery in production. We maintain themedium-term view of a midcycle equilibrium price of $80/b for Brent with a somewhatthinner right-side tail, EQUITY RESEARCH •US Integrated Oil & Gas:We see the political transition in Venezuela as a modest positive forChevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), and ExxonMobil (XOM). As the sole US major active inthe country, CVX is a clear beneficiary from a potentially more stable operating environment.COP could see outsized benefit from higher chances of recovering its $10+bn (>$8/share)claim against the state. That said, the path to meaningful investment and production growthremains uncertain, requiring a stable government, clear license terms, and multi-yearinfrastructure rebuilding. •US Midstream & Refining:Clear tailwind for US refining - Increased Venezuelan crudeproduction could materially benefit USGC complex refiners, given their ability to processheavy sour grades into high-value clean products. Among the group, we see VLO as bestpositioned to capture this upside. •European Integrated Oil & Gas:Repsol and Eni have the most exposure toVenezuela, primarily in the form of natural gas and the Cardón IV JV. Both companies haveoutstanding monies owed to them by PDVSA, which would be a positive to recover that cash,yet the more important factor is that the historic familiarity with the operations and countriescould help provide much needed expertise quickly. •US Energy Ser