全球网络流量报告：先进技术对未来网络日益增长的影响

Global networktraffic report Understanding the growing impact ofadvancing technologies on future networks Network traffic through 2033 The global digital landscape continues to evolve rapidly, withnetwork traffic surging in both consumer and enterprise sectors.The exponential rise in data consumption, driven by advancementsin 5G, artificial intelligence (AI), augmented reality (AR) and virtualreality (VR), among other technologies, underscores the criticalimportance of network evolution to keep pace with demand. Explore our projections Global traffic.............................................................. 4Consumer traffic...................................................... 5Mobile.................................................................... 6Fixed.................................................................... 10Enterprise and industrial traffic........................ 13Artificial intelligence............................................. 16Conclusion................................................................ 21References............................................................... 22 The report offers insights into the projected growth in global networktraffic from 2023-2033, segmented by key domains such as consumermobile, fixed access, and enterprise networks. We explicitly studiedAI traffic, examining how AI-powered applications are contributingto the overall increase. We also explore key drivers, including videostreaming, AI-powered applications, cloud gaming and the emergingmetaverse, as well as the impact of these trends on networkarchitecture, capacity and services. Our methodology Nokia, through its Bell Labs Consulting arm, forecasts globalnetwork traffic on an annual basis to assist network providersin their decision-making and planning. Our forecast coversfrom 2023 through 2033. Our forecast encompasses wide-area network (WAN) traffic fromthe following sources: •Traffic reaching the public adoption through any media—both consumer and enterprise subscriptions included. We have established the traffic baseline for our forecast usingmultiple sources and validated it with internal benchmark data,including insights from real-world customer network measurements.We estimate future developments based on macroeconomic trends,technological advancements, access technology penetration andchanges in customer behavior. Additionally, we use industry surveysand analyst reports, as well as internal assumptions and analysis. •IPTV traffic is delivered via standard broadband consumersubscriptions. •Managed IT traffic (private WAN traffic) for enterprise subscribers,including data traffic from point-to-point connections and serviceprovider leased lines and direct connections to hyperscale cloudssuch as AWS, Azure and Google. The forecast excludes LAN traffic from any infrastructure. We have projected three possible scenarios: moderate, aggressiveand disruptive, based on the uptake of traffic, demanding use casesand technologies. Our findings: total global traffic through 2033 Global WAN traffic3280–6641 EB/monthCAGR of 18%-27% Streaming video and AR/VR willbe the key drivers of traffic growth. Share of enterprise and industrialtraffic will increase with AI usage. Consumer traffic Mobile traffic is projected to grow 6 to 9 times by 2033,driven by increasing 5G adoption and the introductionof 6G, with video streaming accounting for nearly 75%of the traffic. In disruptive scenarios, new applicationslike AR, VR, and cloud gaming are expected to contributeover 13% of traffic by 2033. Similarly, fixed traffic isincreasing due to the rise of data-heavy applicationslike video streaming and VR, especially in regions withadvanced 5G and fiber networks, where CAGR couldreach up to 25%. Cloud VR is also expected to acceleratethis demand further, highlighting the need for continuousnetwork modernization. Consumer mobile traffic Our forecast indicates a sharp rise in global consumer mobile traffic, expectedto grow from 120 EB/month in 2023 to 706-1135 EB/month by 2033, markinga6x-9x increase. Key drivers include rapid 5G adoption, enhancementsin streaming video quality, the rise of AR/VR ecosystems, cloud gaming andgrowing AI integration. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is forecastedat 19-25% over the decade. Blended mobile usage per subscription will increase from 14 GB/month in2023 to 69 GB/month by 2033 in the moderate scenario, potentially reaching108 GB/month in aggressive scenarios. The projected 6.5 billion 5G subscriptionsby 2033, accounting for 72% of total traffic, will coincide with this surge.Additionally, 6G will account for 0.84 billion subscriptions, comprising10% of the total consumer mobile traffic. Consumer mobile traffic As shown in Figure 3: Global mobile subscriptions by technology, the number of mobilesubscriptions is projected to grow from 8.5 billion to approximately 10.3 billion by 2033.By then, 5G subscriptions will reach 6.5 billion, accountin