房地产行业2013年下半年投资策略：城镇化是趋势性机会的催化剂
证券研究报告：行业研究 房地产 评级：看好 维持 城镇化是趋势性机会的催化剂 ——房地产行业2013年下半年投资策略 2013年06月30日 深度研究 相关研究： 《等待秋收的季节》（20111128） 《业绩增速和盈利下降 2012年仍有保障》（20120528） 《政策转向如预期 行业难迎趋势性机会》（20120629） 《实际负债水平好转 走势继续强于大盘》（20120911） 《2012年业绩锁定性增强 负债水平继续下降》（20121109） 《市场或先扬后抑 投资要提前布局》（20121221） 投资要点： 行业上半年资金储备较多：负债状况改善，良好的销售形势，通畅的融资渠道，再加上投资相对谨慎，上半年房地产行业资金储备较为丰富，为全年融资打下基础。 多渠道融资可缓解下半年资金紧张：下半年房地产行业可能重新陷入资金紧张，大中型房地产企业仍可通过多种渠道融资缓解资金压力，但融资成本可能会上升，部分小型企业可能会重新面临资金链断裂的危险。 下半年行业投资取决于销售：下半年投资增速主要取决于建安工程投资，而建安工程投资则由下半年销售形势决定，如果下半年销售保持平稳，行业新开工和竣工均会有较大幅度增长；如果销售出现较大幅度下滑，受打击囤地等政策影响，新开工预计仍能保持一定增长，但施工进度会减缓，行业竣工增长会受到影响。 需求将稳定释放：下半年行业政策可能会被动收紧，但对自住需求几乎没有影响，部分改善性需求可能会略微受到影响。 房地产市场供求关系或长期紧张：2012年末全国城镇住宅建筑面积共计165.81亿平方米，缺口为47.7亿平方米，供需平衡要到2020年。 行业2013年业绩基本锁定：2013年5月底，行业业绩锁定性达到103.72%，大中型公司业绩锁定性达到108.14%。 行业评级：综合比较，我们认为地产板块下半年走势仍将强于大盘，维持行业“看好”评级。 投资策略：标配行业龙头：万科A、保利地产、招商地产；超配城镇化概念股：福星股份、荣盛发展、阳光城、金科股份。 投资风险：房地产市场资金紧张风险；销售下滑风险；A股市场风险。 地产板块6个月内走势 分析师：平海庆 执业证书编号： S0760511010003 电话：010-82190365 邮箱：pinghaiqing@sxzq.com 联系人： 张小玲 电话：0351-8686990 邮箱：sxzqyjfzb@i618.com.cn 孟军 电话：010-82190365 邮箱：mengjun@sxzq.com 地址：太原市府西街69号国贸中心A座28层 电话：0351-8686986 山西证券股份有限公司 http://www.i618.com.cn 目录 请务必参阅最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明 1 目 录 1. 市场总体不缺钱 销售决定下半年投资····································· 1 1.1.货币供给总量稳定 ·········································································································· 1 1.2.行业上半年资金储备较多 ······························································································· 1 1.3.多渠道融资可缓解下半年资金紧张 ················································································· 2 1.4.下半年行业投资取决于销售 ···························································································· 3 2. 政策或被动收紧 对需求释放影响较小 ···································· 5 2.1.下半年行业政策预判 ······································································································ 5 2.2.房价收入比连续3年下降 ······························································································· 5 3. 房地产市场供求关系或长期紧张 ·············································· 7 3.1.目前居住水平达到中等收入国家水平 ············································································· 7 3.2.未来十年城镇人口将保持高速增长 ················································································· 8 3.3.城镇住宅缺口较大 ·········································································································· 8 4. 行业2013年业绩基本锁定 ······················································ 9 5. 行业评级与投资策略 ······························································ 10 5.1.行业估值处于历史低位 ································································································· 10 5.2.城镇化详细方案或使板块具有趋势性机会 ···································································· 12 5.3.行业评级 ······················································································································ 15 5.4.投资策略 ······················································································································ 16 6．投资风险 ················································································· 17 目录 请务必参阅最后一页股票评级说明和免责声明 2 图目录 图1：2013年上班货币供应呈略微宽松态势 ................................................... 1 图2：行业融资增速明显高于投资 ........................................................... 2 图3：国内贷款为近2年来最好水平 ......................................................... 2 图4：上半年预售款增长迅速 ............................................................... 2 图5：按揭贷款增长迅速 .................................................................. 3 图6：自筹资金压力较小 .................................................................. 3 图7：建安工程投资增长较快 ............................................................... 4 图8：土地购置增速缓慢 .................................................................. 4 图9：行业新开工和竣工增长缓慢 ........................................................... 4 图10：行业在施面积增长较缓慢 ............................................................ 4 图11:40大中城市土地成交大幅增长 ........................................................ 4 图12：35个大中城市房价收入比 ........................................................... 6 图13:35个三、四线城市房价收入比 ........................................................ 6 图14：过去20年我国城镇人口快速增长 ..................................................... 8 图15：我国城镇住宅竣工面积 .............................................................. 9 图16:2013年1-5月全国商品房销售同比大增 ................................................ 10 图17：部分上市公司2013年5月底业绩锁定性 .............................................. 10 图18：A股板块PE比较 .................................................................. 11 图19：地产板块历史PE .......................................
