• 核心观点：连连数字2024年年报显示公司业务拓展稳中有进，核心支付网络不断深化，盈利能力持续修复，全球化与多业务共振提效。公司凭借领先的合规资质、技术平台与本地化运营能力，预计将在国际数字支付领域持续保持领先地位。
• 关键数据：
  • 营业收入：13.15亿元，同比增长27.89%。
  • 归母净利润：-1.68亿元，同比减亏4.88亿元；经调整净利润达0.79亿元，同比增长4.82亿元。
  • 全球支付业务收入：8.08亿元，同比增长23.1%，占营收比例为61.4%；TPV同比增长63.1%至2815亿元。
  • 境内支付收入：3.43亿元，同比增长57.1%；TPV同比增长64.9%至3.0万亿元。
  • 增值服务收入：1.46亿元，同比增长9.5%。
  • 研发支出：3.19亿元，同比增长19.2%。
  • 毛利率：6.83亿元，同比增长18.2%；全球支付业务毛利率高达72%，同比增长0.2个百分点。
• 研究结论：
  • 公司全球支付牌照及相关资质增至65项，成功获得卢森堡电子货币机构（EMI）牌照和香港虚拟资产交易平台（VATP）牌照，为未来拓展虚拟资产金融服务奠定基础。
  • 公司积极推进Web2与Web3融合的支付网络建设，引入AI和区块链技术，巩固长期领先优势。
  • 子公司连连国际与圆币科技、BVNK达成合作意向，推动稳定币在跨境交易业务场景中的使用，打开新增长空间。
  • 预计2025-2027年公司营收分别为16.75、20.96、26.69亿元，归母净利润分别为15.60、-0.21、2.02亿元，摊薄每股收入分别为1.55、1.94、2.47元，对应7月10日收盘价的PS估值分别为6.09、4.87、3.82倍。
  • 首次覆盖给予“增持”评级。
• 风险提示：市场竞争加剧、贸易摩擦加剧、监管政策收紧。

Qatar Real Estate Market Review (Winter 2024/25)

Residential Sales Market

• Market Performance: The Qatar residential market experienced a 5% year-on-year decline in both villa and apartment prices, reflecting shifting buyer sentiment and evolving market dynamics. Prime locations continued to hold high values due to steady demand for premium homes.
• Villa Prices: Abu Hamour led with the highest villa prices at QAR 8,587 psm, driven by community appeal and smaller unit sizes. Al Thumama (QAR 7,500 psm) and Al Kheesa (QAR 7,000 psm) were key mid-tier locations, while Al Wakair (QAR 5,600 psm) and Al Kharaitiyat (QAR 5,807 psm) offered more affordable options.
• Apartment Prices: Average apartment prices declined by 5% to QAR 12,625 psm. Qanat Quartier (QAR 13,977 psm) and The Waterfront (QAR 14,300 psm) commanded the highest prices due to strong demand for luxury waterfront living. The Marina District (QAR 13,600 psm) remained a prime location, while Porto Arabia and The Pearl Island (QAR 11,834 psm) provided more affordable options.
• Mortgage Activity: Q4 2024 saw 294 mortgage transactions valued at QAR 24.8bn, a 168% year-on-year increase, possibly driven by opportunistic refinancing as interest rates declined from 6.25% to 5.1% year-on-year.

Residential Leasing Market

• Villa Rentals: Average villa rental rates declined by 2.6% to QAR 15,875 per month. West Bay Lagoon maintained the highest villa rents, with 5-bedroom homes averaging QAR 28,850 per month.
• Apartment Rentals: The apartment rental market remained stable, averaging QAR 7,990 per month. The Pearl led with 3-bedroom apartments averaging QAR 15,721 per month, driven by luxury appeal and waterfront location. Fox Hills offered more affordable options, with 1-bedroom apartments renting for QAR 5,113 per month.
• Outlook: Villa rents were expected to stabilize in prime areas, while secondary locations may see further price adjustments due to softer demand. Apartment rentals remained strong in luxury developments like The Pearl and West Bay.

Office Market

• Rental Trends: Grade A office rents declined by 2.3% over the past 12 months to QAR 90 psm, influenced by new supply, corporate consolidations, and evolving occupational strategies.
• Prime Demand: Demand remained strong in prime districts like Msheireb Downtown and West Bay, driven by government leases and corporate expansions.
• Rental Rates: West Bay-Prime commanded the highest rents at QAR 105 psm per month, followed by Marina District (QAR 97 psm). Secondary locations saw elevated vacancy rates (around 15%), contributing to downward rent pressure.

Hospitality Market Performance

• Supply: Qatar’s hotel room supply stood at approximately 40,755 keys, with 60% internationally branded properties.
• Visitors: Total visitors reached 5.08 million in 2024, a 25% increase from 4.05 million in 2023. December alone saw 594,079 visitors, a 14.6% year-on-year rise.
• Performance Indicators: ADR increased by 7.9% to QAR 441, occupancy by 19.1% to 68.8%, and RevPAR grew by 28.5% to QAR 304.

Retail Market

• Lease Rates: Average annual lease rates declined by 1.5% to QAR 204 psm, due to increased supply.
• Prime Locations: Lifestyle retail developments in prime locations commanded the highest rents at QAR 243 psm, followed by lifestyle retail F&B at QAR 242 psm.
• Outlook: Luxury and experience-driven retail maintained high occupancy despite rent adjustments. Secondary malls faced challenges due to competition from newer lifestyle destinations like Lusail Boulevard and The Pearl.
• E-commerce: Online sales exceeded QAR 4.1bn in December 2024, a 32.2% year-on-year increase, posing a challenge for physical stores.

核心观点

• 技术与人才的协同： 领导者必须将技术与人才战略相结合，以应对人工智能带来的巨大变革。技术趋势将成为未来五年影响企业的主要因素，而人才策略的滞后将成为企业增长的主要风险。
• 对员工的不公平期望： 企业对员工抱有不切实际的期望，要求员工主动学习人工智能技能，但缺乏相应的培训和指导。这种不公平的期望导致员工对领导层的信心下降，并阻碍了人工智能的有效实施。
• 适应人工智能的变革： 适应人工智能带来的变革，企业需要建立以人为本的人才战略，并投资于数据基础设施和技能发展。未来准备好的企业能够灵活应对人工智能的冲击，并通过内部流动性和技能提升来保持竞争力。
• 数据驱动的技能发展： 数据可以帮助企业了解技能差距，并制定更有效的技能发展战略。未来准备好的企业更倾向于使用技术进行技能发展和人才管理，并通过数据洞察来做出更明智的决策。

关键数据

• 领导者对人工智能实施的信心逐年下降，2024年比2023年下降了11个百分点。
• 60%的领导者认为员工需要更新技能、角色和职责以适应人工智能的影响，但只有25%的员工完成了相关培训。
• 只有三分之一的企业领导层在过去12个月内采取了措施来提高他们对人工智能的能力和知识。
• 未来准备好的企业占企业总数的10%，它们更可能采用基于技能的劳动力规划方法，并投资于数据基础设施和技能发展。
• 33%的企业正在投资数据洞察力，以更好地了解和建设技能，而未来准备好的企业中这一比例高达67%。

研究结论

• 企业需要建立以人为本的技术转型策略，并制定明确的负责任的人工智能框架。
• 领导者需要了解人工智能，并为员工提供透明的指导和支持。
• 企业需要投资于数据基础设施和技能发展，以打破技能僵局并制定更有效的人才战略。
• 未来准备好的企业将能够灵活应对人工智能的冲击，并通过以人为本的人才策略来保持竞争力。

联系人

• Harmen de Jong: 合伙人，中东研究主管
• Faisal Durrani: 合伙人，中东研究主管
• Turab Saleem: 合伙人
• Oussama El Kadiri: 合伙人，中东酒店估值与咨询主管
• Daniel Pugh: 合伙人，中东酒店估值与咨询主管
• Shehzad Jamal: 合伙人，战略与咨询主管
• Stephen Flanagan: 合伙人，中东估值与咨询主管
• Turab Saleem: 合伙人，酒店、旅游与休闲咨询主管
• Oussama El Kadiri: 合伙人，酒店、旅游与休闲咨询主管
• Harmen de Jong: 合伙人，战略与咨询主管

迪拜酒店市场

• 联系人
  • Turab Saleem: 合伙人
  • Oussama El Kadiri: 合伙人，中东酒店估值与咨询主管
  • Daniel Pugh: 合伙人，中东酒店估值与咨询主管
  • Shehzad Jamal: 合伙人，战略与咨询主管
  • Stephen Flanagan: 合伙人，中东估值与咨询主管
  • Turab Saleem: 合伙人，酒店、旅游与休闲咨询主管
  • Oussama El Kadiri: 合伙人，酒店、旅游与休闲咨询主管
  • Harmen de Jong: 合伙人，战略与咨询主管